Learn how Bitcoin can improve your real estate portfolio performance.

Purpose of the portfolio estimator

Explore the future value of your real estate and Bitcoin portfolio by applying historical growth trends, volatility patterns, and market dynamics. For real estate, the model uses the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) to estimate long-term appreciation, while for Bitcoin, it relies on generative price trajectories modeling historical price trends. The tool helps you visualize potential portfolio outcomes, assess risk exposure, and make more informed investment decisions.

Power-law model overview

The tool relies on the Bitcoin power-law model that was first introduced by physicist Giovanni Santostasi in a 2018 Reddit post, noticing that Bitcoin's price follows a predictable long-term pattern. Instead of experiencing random growth, Bitcoin's price history fits well to a power-law curve, meaning its value increases in a way that can be plotted on a smooth arc. This differs from usual financial models assuming price movements are chaotic or purely speculative.

This model suggests that Bitcoin's long-term price follows a structured path based on adoption and market cycles. While short-term swings can be dramatic, Bitcoin has consistently grown within a range that aligns with the power-law trend.

The tool generates multiple future price trajectories with historical volatility

While the power-law model gives a big-picture expectation of where Bitcoin's price might be in the future, real-world prices don't move smoothly along that curve. The market goes through ups and downs, reacting to news, regulations, adoption waves, and economic shifts.

Since it's impossible to predict exactly when these fluctuations will occur, the tool creates multiple possible price paths by introducing historically accurate volatility to future projections. By applying Bitcoin's past price swings and volatility patterns, the user can different market scenarios to see the potential long-term trend and the possible short-term price variations along the way.

*Subject to change